Turkey's Evolving Foreign Policy in the Middle East

A Shifting Regional Landscape

Turkey's approach to the Middle East has undergone significant transformation in recent years, reflecting both domestic political considerations and the rapidly changing dynamics of a region in flux. As a country straddling Europe and Asia with historical ties to the former Ottoman territories, Turkey has long played a unique role in the Middle East's geopolitical landscape.

Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's leadership, Turkey has pursued what many analysts describe as a "Neo-Ottoman" foreign policy, seeking to expand its influence throughout regions formerly under Ottoman control. This approach has manifested in various diplomatic initiatives, economic partnerships, and at times, military interventions that have redefined Turkey's position in the region.

The Syrian Conundrum

Perhaps nowhere is Turkey's evolving regional stance more evident than in its approach to the Syrian conflict. What began as support for opposition forces against the Assad regime has evolved into a complex web of military operations, humanitarian interventions, and diplomatic maneuvering. Turkey now controls significant territory in northern Syria through operations like "Euphrates Shield" and "Olive Branch," creating a buffer zone that serves multiple strategic purposes.

These military operations reflect Turkey's primary security concern in Syria: preventing the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region along its southern border that could potentially embolden Kurdish separatist movements within Turkey itself. The presence of the Kurdish YPG militia, which Turkey considers an extension of the PKK (designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US, and the EU), has been a driving factor in Turkey's Syrian policy.

Simultaneously, Turkey hosts approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees, more than any other country. This humanitarian dimension adds another layer of complexity to Turkey's involvement in Syria, as domestic politics and economic considerations increasingly influence its policy decisions regarding refugees and potential resettlement zones.

Recalibrating Regional Relationships

Beyond Syria, Turkey has undertaken significant diplomatic efforts to recalibrate its relationships with key regional powers. After years of tension, Ankara has initiated a normalization process with Egypt, seeking to repair relations that deteriorated following the 2013 ouster of Mohamed Morsi, whom Turkey had supported. This rapprochement reflects a pragmatic shift in Turkey's approach, recognizing Egypt's importance as a regional actor and potential economic partner.

Similarly, Turkey has moved toward reconciliation with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia after years of strained relations, particularly following the 2017 Qatar blockade, in which Turkey firmly supported Doha. The 2021 Al-Ula Declaration that ended the Qatar crisis opened a window for Turkey to repair its relationships with the Gulf monarchies, leading to increased economic cooperation and investment flows.

Perhaps most striking has been Turkey's engagement with Israel. Despite the historical tensions and occasional diplomatic crises between the two countries, particularly regarding the Palestinian issue, Turkey and Israel have recently worked to normalize relations. This effort acknowledges shared interests in energy development, regional security, and economic cooperation, highlighting Turkey's increasingly pragmatic approach to regional diplomacy.

Economic Drivers of Foreign Policy

Economic considerations have become increasingly central to Turkey's regional engagement strategy. Facing domestic economic challenges, including high inflation and currency volatility, Turkey has sought to expand export markets and attract investment from Middle Eastern partners.

The Middle East represents a crucial market for Turkish exports, particularly in construction, defense, textiles, and consumer goods. Turkish contractors have secured significant infrastructure projects throughout the region, from Iraq to Qatar. Meanwhile, the defense industry has emerged as a particularly important sector, with Turkish drones and other military equipment gaining prominence and creating new avenues for influence.

Energy security also shapes Turkey's regional approach. The country imports approximately 93% of its oil and the majority of its natural gas, creating a strategic vulnerability. Turkey has pursued diversification of energy sources, engaging with countries like Iraq, Iran, and Qatar while also developing its own resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, where competing claims have created tensions with Greece, Cyprus, and at times Israel.

Balancing Great Power Interests

Turkey's Middle East policy does not exist in isolation but rather within a complex web of great power competition. Ankara has demonstrated a willingness to leverage its relationships with Russia and the United States to enhance its regional position, often playing these powers against each other to maximize its strategic autonomy.

The acquisition of Russian S-400 missile defense systems, despite strong opposition from NATO allies, exemplifies this approach. While creating tension with the United States and resulting in Turkey's removal from the F-35 fighter jet program, the move underscored Turkey's determination to pursue independent security policies even at the cost of straining traditional alliances.

In Syria, Turkey has maintained a delicate balancing act between Russia, which supports the Assad regime, and the United States, which has backed Kurdish forces that Turkey considers threats. The Astana peace process, involving Turkey, Russia, and Iran, represents an alternative diplomatic track that has allowed Turkey to protect its interests while working with powers that often have competing goals in the region.

Domestic Influences on Foreign Policy

Turkey's foreign policy cannot be understood without considering domestic political dynamics. Foreign policy initiatives often serve domestic political purposes, rallying nationalist sentiment and diverting attention from economic challenges. The government's rhetoric on issues like Palestine, Syria, and the Eastern Mediterranean often resonates with its conservative base and appeals to nationalist sentiments across the political spectrum.

The electoral calendar also influences foreign policy decisions. Military operations in Syria and Libya, normalization with Israel, and outreach to Gulf states have all been timed and framed with an eye toward domestic political impact, particularly as Turkey approaches its 2023 elections.

Future Trajectories

Looking forward, several factors will shape Turkey's approach to the Middle East. Economic imperatives will likely drive continued pragmatism in diplomatic relationships, as Turkey seeks investment and export markets. Security concerns, particularly regarding Kurdish groups and terrorist threats, will remain paramount in border regions.

Turkey's relationships with great powers—particularly the United States, Russia, and increasingly China—will continue to influence its regional positioning. As global competition intensifies, Turkey may find both opportunities and challenges in maintaining its policy of strategic autonomy.

The domestic political landscape will also impact foreign policy decisions, especially as Turkey moves toward elections. Economic performance, refugee issues, and nationalist sentiment will all shape the government's approach to regional crises and opportunities.

Conclusion

Turkey's evolving foreign policy in the Middle East reflects a complex interplay of historical ties, security imperatives, economic interests, and domestic political considerations. Under President Erdoğan, Turkey has pursued a more assertive and independent regional role, willing to use various instruments of power—from military intervention to economic engagement—to advance its interests.

While this approach has created tensions with traditional allies and regional powers at times, it has also positioned Turkey as an increasingly important player that cannot be ignored in regional affairs. As the Middle East continues to transform amid ongoing conflicts, economic challenges, and great power competition, Turkey's adaptive and multifaceted approach to the region will likely continue to evolve, balancing pragmatism with principle in pursuit of its strategic objectives.