Turkey-EU Relations: Current Status and Future Prospects

A Relationship at a Crossroads

The relationship between Turkey and the European Union stands at a critical juncture in 2024, characterized by both significant challenges and potential opportunities. This complex relationship, which formally began with Turkey's application for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, has experienced numerous ups and downs over the decades. Today, it represents one of the most multifaceted and politically charged bilateral relationships in the Euro-Mediterranean region.

Turkey's formal EU accession negotiations, which commenced in 2005, have progressed at an uneven pace, with periods of advancement followed by stagnation and, at times, outright regression. Of the 35 negotiating chapters required for accession, only 16 have been opened, and just one has been provisionally closed. In recent years, the accession process has effectively been frozen, with the European Parliament and several member states expressing opposition to further progress.

The Current State of Relations

Current Turkey-EU relations operate on multiple interconnected levels, encompassing political dialogue, economic cooperation, security collaboration, and humanitarian issues. While the formal accession process has stalled, interaction continues across these domains, creating a relationship that is simultaneously cooperative and contentious.

Political relations have been particularly strained in recent years. EU concerns regarding democratic backsliding, human rights, and the rule of law in Turkey have led to critical assessments in the Commission's annual progress reports. The 2023 report noted "serious deficiencies in the functioning of Turkey's democratic institutions" and stated that "Turkey's accession negotiations have effectively come to a standstill."

From Turkey's perspective, there is frustration with what is perceived as the EU's failure to fulfill its commitments, particularly regarding visa liberalization for Turkish citizens and updates to the Customs Union. Turkish officials frequently cite what they view as double standards in the EU's approach to Turkey compared to other candidate countries.

Economic Dimensions

Despite political tensions, economic ties between Turkey and the EU remain robust. The EU continues to be Turkey's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 41% of Turkey's global trade. In 2023, bilateral trade in goods amounted to €176 billion, demonstrating the significant economic interdependence between the two partners.

The Customs Union, which came into effect in 1996, has been a cornerstone of this economic relationship. However, both sides acknowledge that it requires modernization to address changing economic realities and new areas of trade such as services, public procurement, and sustainable development. Negotiations for updating the Customs Union began in 2015 but were suspended in 2018 due to political tensions.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows from the EU to Turkey remain significant, though they have declined from their peak levels. EU-based companies accounted for approximately 65% of total FDI in Turkey between 2002 and 2023, highlighting the continuing economic importance of the relationship despite political challenges.

Migration and Security Cooperation

The 2016 EU-Turkey Statement on migration management represents another critical dimension of the relationship. Under this arrangement, Turkey agreed to prevent irregular migration to Europe and accept the return of irregular migrants from Greece, while the EU committed to providing financial support for Syrian refugees in Turkey, revitalizing accession talks, and advancing visa liberalization.

Implementation of this agreement has been uneven. Turkey hosts approximately 3.6 million Syrian refugees—more than any other country—and has prevented many irregular crossings to Europe. The EU has provided €6 billion through the Facility for Refugees in Turkey, supporting education, healthcare, and socioeconomic initiatives for refugees. However, Turkey maintains that the EU has not fulfilled other commitments regarding accession and visa liberalization.

Security cooperation extends beyond migration issues to include counterterrorism, energy security, and regional stability. Turkey's NATO membership provides an institutional framework for security collaboration with many EU member states, though this has not prevented tensions over issues such as Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems and maritime disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The Impact of Regional Developments

Regional crises and geopolitical developments significantly influence Turkey-EU relations. The conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated Turkey's strategic importance to European security while highlighting its complex position between Russia and the Western alliance. Turkey has supplied Ukraine with drones and supported its territorial integrity while maintaining economic relations with Russia and positioning itself as a potential mediator.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions over maritime boundaries, exclusive economic zones, and hydrocarbon exploration have strained relations between Turkey and EU members Greece and Cyprus. The EU has expressed solidarity with its member states while calling for dialogue and de-escalation. Recent diplomatic efforts to normalize relations between Turkey and Greece represent a positive development that could indirectly improve Turkey-EU dynamics.

The ongoing conflicts in Syria and Libya have further underscored Turkey's regional significance. While Turkey and various EU states have sometimes pursued divergent policies in these conflicts, there is recognition of the need for cooperation to address humanitarian challenges and security threats emanating from these unstable regions.

Public Opinion and Domestic Politics

Public attitudes toward EU-Turkey relations have evolved on both sides. In Turkey, public support for EU membership has fluctuated but remains substantial. A 2023 survey by the Economic Development Foundation (IKV) found that 58% of Turkish citizens support Turkey's EU membership bid, though this represents a decline from earlier years when support regularly exceeded 70%.

Within the EU, public opinion regarding Turkey's potential membership varies significantly across member states. Countries such as Germany, France, Austria, and the Netherlands have seen strong opposition to Turkish accession, while some Southern and Eastern European states maintain more favorable views. These public attitudes inevitably influence political approaches to the relationship.

Domestic political considerations shape policy on both sides. In Turkey, the EU accession process has been used alternately as a catalyst for reforms and as a rhetorical foil in nationalist discourse. Within EU member states, attitudes toward Turkey often reflect broader debates about European identity, immigration, and the future direction of the EU itself.

The Positive Agenda and Alternative Frameworks

Recognizing the impasse in the formal accession process, the EU and Turkey initiated a "Positive Agenda" in 2012 to maintain momentum in bilateral relations. This approach aims to advance cooperation in areas of mutual interest while acknowledging challenges in the accession track. In recent years, high-level dialogues on climate, security, public health, and migration have been conducted under this framework.

Some European leaders and analysts have proposed alternative frameworks for Turkey-EU relations that fall short of full membership. These include concepts such as "privileged partnership," "strategic partnership," or "differentiated integration." These proposals typically envision deep economic integration and security cooperation without the political integration implied by full EU membership.

Turkish officials have consistently rejected such alternatives, maintaining that full membership remains Turkey's strategic goal. However, pragmatic cooperation continues in many areas regardless of the formal status of accession negotiations, reflecting the practical necessity of engagement between such important neighbors.

Recent Developments and Potential Turning Points

Several recent developments suggest the potential for recalibration in Turkey-EU relations. Following Turkey's 2023 elections, the government has signaled interest in improving relations with Western partners, including the EU. The appointment of Hakan Fidan as Foreign Minister and the emphasis on economic reforms under Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek suggest a potentially more pragmatic approach to international relations driven partly by economic imperatives.

The European Union has responded with cautious engagement. High Representative Josep Borrell and several Commissioners have visited Turkey, while Turkish officials have made reciprocal visits to Brussels and key European capitals. The March 2024 meeting of the EU-Turkey Association Council—the first since 2019—represented a tentative step toward revitalizing institutional dialogue.

In December 2023, the European Commission recommended exploring the modernization of the Customs Union, suggesting potential movement on one of the key aspects of the relationship. However, the Commission emphasized that any progress would be conditional on improvements in democracy, rule of law, and fundamental rights in Turkey.

Future Prospects and Scenarios

Looking ahead, several possible scenarios for Turkey-EU relations can be identified, ranging from renewed momentum toward accession to continued stagnation or even further deterioration. The most likely path appears to be a pragmatic middle course characterized by selective engagement on issues of mutual interest while managing disagreements in other areas.

Several factors will influence the trajectory of relations. Turkey's domestic political evolution, particularly regarding democratic governance and human rights, will remain crucial. The EU's own internal dynamics, including debates about enlargement policy and the union's future strategic orientation, will also shape its approach to Turkey.

External factors will continue to play a significant role. Russia's war in Ukraine has underscored Turkey's strategic importance, potentially creating incentives for deeper cooperation on security and energy issues. The volatile situation in the Middle East and North Africa similarly highlights the value of Turkish-European coordination despite differences in approach.

Economic considerations provide strong incentives for constructive engagement. The modernization of the Customs Union represents a potential win-win that could boost trade and investment while strengthening standards in areas such as labor rights and environmental protection. However, progress on this front will likely require parallel advances in addressing political concerns.

Policy Recommendations and Potential Pathways

A realistic approach to Turkey-EU relations in the current context would focus on identifying concrete areas where meaningful progress is possible while maintaining principled positions on more contentious issues.

Modernizing the Customs Union represents perhaps the most promising avenue for substantive advancement. This process could be designed to include commitments on standards and practices that address some EU concerns while delivering economic benefits to both parties. Linking specific improvements in governance standards to concrete economic incentives could create a positive dynamic.

On migration management, a revised framework that builds on the 2016 Statement while addressing its shortcomings could provide a foundation for cooperation. This would require greater EU support for refugee hosting in Turkey coupled with Turkish commitments on border management and preventing irregular migration.

Enhanced dialogue and cooperation on climate change, energy transition, and green technology represent another promising area. Turkey's ratification of the Paris Agreement and the EU's Green Deal create opportunities for alignment that could yield environmental and economic benefits while avoiding some of the more politically sensitive areas of the relationship.

In the security domain, strengthening NATO-EU coordination mechanisms could provide an institutional framework for addressing common challenges while managing differences. This could encompass cooperation on counterterrorism, maritime security, and cyber threats.

Conclusion: Managing Complexity

Turkey-EU relations exemplify the challenges of managing a complex, multidimensional relationship between important neighbors with both shared and divergent interests. The formal accession process, while currently stalled, has provided a framework for engagement that has delivered significant benefits to both sides despite its limitations.

Moving forward, both Turkey and the EU face the challenge of developing a relationship that acknowledges political realities while maximizing cooperation in areas of mutual interest. This will require political leadership, diplomatic creativity, and a willingness to engage constructively despite differences.

The strategic importance of this relationship to both parties suggests that, despite the challenges, abandonment is not a viable option. Turkey and the EU are bound by geography, history, economics, and shared security concerns. The task ahead is not choosing between engagement and disengagement but rather determining how to engage most effectively in a complex and evolving regional and global context.